Google Android phones make debut

Tuesday, February 19, 2008

The first mobile phones to be loaded with Google's Android software for mobile phones have gone on show.

About a dozen companies such as ARM, Texas Instruments and Qualcomm showed off prototype handsets at the annual Mobile World Congress in Barcelona.

The free software system was launched in November 2007 and is being developed by an alliance of more than 30 companies including Google.

The first Android-enabled phone is expected to go on sale later this year.

One firm showing off a prototype phone was the UK processor designer ARM.

"It's really a demonstration vehicle rather than a full phone," Ian Drew of ARM told BBC News.

However, he said the wireless phone did show off several applications.

"What we are demonstrating on the Android platform is maps, browser, camera applications, multimedia, e-mail, and calendar - basically everything you'd expect on a mobile phone."

Open world

The Google Android platform is based on open source Linux software that allows developers access to the underlying code.

This allows programmers much greater flexibility to build applications and features tailored to individual phones.

Other companies also showed off Android prototypes such as Marvell, Texas Instruments, Qualcomm, NEC and ST Microelectronics.

Korean handset manufacturer Samsung has also said it hopes to have a phone based on Android by early next year.

Android was not the only Linux platform making waves in Barcelona.

The Mobile Linux foundation said that 18 phones from seven different firms would be demonstrated at 3GSM using its Limo software.

LG and Samsung were amongst handset manufacturers showing off Limo devices.

Survival questions Key question Blu-ray victory

Source from: news.bbc.co.uk

Beijing takes timing to the wire

Blood, sweat and tears offered by athletes in their efforts to go ever faster would count for nothing without one thing - accurate timekeeping.

When a fraction of a second makes the difference between winning and losing, timekeepers have to be as focused as the athletes themselves.

At the Beijing Olympics this summer, the job of timing the event's wide range of sporting competitions falls to Swiss watchmaker Omega.

It plans to introduce a series of technological innovations that will produce more accurate times than those recorded at Athens in 2004.Swim plan

Improving timing equipment for sporting events is a constant task, said Christophe Berthaud, Omega Timing's chief executive.

You cannot say to an athlete who has just run the 1500m 'Sorry there was something wrong, can you do it again?'

"As athletes improve, performances are getting closer and closer so you have to introduce technology that is more and more accurate."

Recording performance times ever more accurately often means looking at the beginning and the end of races, according to Mr Berthaud.

"What is difficult is not measuring the time when they are in the pool - that's easy," he said, referring to swimming events.

"Having the maximum accuracy at the beginning and the end is what makes the difference."

Omega was trialling a new starting block for swimmers at the recent test event. It is being given to national teams to try out over the coming months.

This new block allows swimmers to start a race with their legs bent at 90 degrees - the angle that ensures the best start.

Every starting block will also be fitted with a speaker to ensure that each swimmer will hear the start signal at exactly the same time.

In other events at the Beijing Olympics, Omega will also present information in new ways to allow spectators to better understand what is going on.

Double-handed 470 dinghy sailing event, AP
Omega plans to use GPS to help follow sailing events

The Global Positioning System will be used to relay information to viewers about exactly where one boat is in relation to another.

And in rowing, being able to accurately position a competitor will enable Omega to work out if one boat is catching another, and whether it will do so before the finish line.

Developing new technology can ensure the right competitor gets the gold medal, but it sometimes gets timekeepers into trouble.

This happened when Omega introduced touch pads -- used to stop the clock -- to swimming events in 1967.

Shortly after one event this new technology led to judges disqualifying Australian swimmers.

"That night the Swiss timekeeping officials were almost run down in the parking lot," said Joseph Panetta, a spokesman for Omega.

"They had to change hotels at midnight because people were threatening... them," he added.

"But it was because of this advent of technology that we could say they had cheated." Future limit

Omega first began timing the Olympic Games at the Los Angeles event in 1932, when hand-held stop-watches were used.

Olympic logo, AFP/Getty
China has been preparing for the Olympics for a long time

Mr Berthaud claimed there have been no mistakes while Omega has been in charge of timing, and nothing is being left to chance in Beijing.

Around 400 professional timekeepers and 1,000 volunteers will be responsible for timing performances in China.

There will be three timing systems in place: the main one and two back-ups.

"Getting a performance time is the most important thing," said Mr Berthaud, who arrived on time for his interview with the BBC.

"You cannot say to an athlete who has just run the 1500m, 'Sorry there was something wrong, can you do it again?'"

The goal of getting ever more accurate times at sports events is Mr Berthaud's passion, but even he admits there is a limit to what can be achieved.

One thousandth of a second represents about 1cm in the 100m.

"Is it worth measuring 1mm?" he said. "Probably not." Survival questions Cold War to thaw? Blu-ray victory

Source from: news.bbc.co.uk

Review: Nikon D300 solid as a little tank

art.nikon.d300.jpg

(CNET) -- When you build the follow-up to a hot camera, how do you turn up the heat? When Nikon shipped the D200 a couple of years ago, its combination of speed and photo quality blew away the limited competition, and provided a powerful, relatively inexpensive alternative to Nikon's then top-of-the-line D2X.

The D300 faces a far more crowded field. Not only does it take on its venerable and now lower-priced predecessor, but also a cluster of far-from-shabby dSLRs just at or below its price: the Canon EOS 40D, the Sony Alpha DSLR-A700, the Olympus E-3, and the Pentax K20D.

Nikon's offering a body-only box of the D300 as well as two kits: one with a DX 18mm-135mm f/3.5-5.6G ED AF lens (27mm-202.5mm equivalent with the camera's 1.5x crop factor) and one with a DX 18-200mm f/3.5-5.6G ED VR lens (27mm-300mm equivalent). I tested the latter kit, and also used the camera with two non-DX lenses: a preproduction version of the 14-24mm 2.8G ED and the 24-70mm f/2.8G ED IF.

For the most part, Nikon sticks with the tried-and-true body design and interface of the D200, with its intelligently laid out controls. The dust- and weatherproof body weighs a hair over 2 pounds, and feels as solid as a little tank.

The viewfinder is bigger and brighter, with 100 percent coverage. There are a few behaviors I'm not fond of, like the hard to manipulate metering dial (discussed in my more-detailed analysis of the design) and occasionally problematic AF-mode navigation (discussed below), but find the camera's operation comfortable and fluid. Nikon carries over the ultraflexible user-settings menus, which consists of two banks--shooting settings and custom settings--with four nameable slots each.

Though the DX-format (23.6x15.8 mm), 12-megapixel CMOS sensor is new, the D300 otherwise retains the raft of features that made the D200 so powerful, plus some high-profile enhancements. Most notably, the D300 increases to 51 AF points with 15 cross-type sensors, which contributes to the camera's new 3D-tracking 51-point Dynamic Area AF mode, and replaces the Group Dynamic AF of its predecessor. Essentially, the D300's 1,005-point 3D color matrix meter does double duty, feeding a low-resolution digitized version of the scene to the new Multi-Cam 3500DX AF module for tracking analysis. (You can see an interesting video simulation of it on YouTube.)

Based on the description (and the suggested use in the manual), the 3D tracking mode seems like an optimal solution for shooting well-defined subjects--those with strong color contrast relative to the background and which occupy a large percentage of the scene--that remain within the frame. And in shoots at a local dog run, it worked best for portrait-type situations, where it tracked the dogs' wildly moving heads while they themselves remained relatively stationary within the frame. However, for shots where the subject moves too quickly to keep in the viewfinder--as happens with most of the other dog-run shots--Nikon suggests using the 51-point dynamic AF without the 3D tracking. That works relatively well. (You can also choose 21-point or nine-point without 3D.)

Unfortunately, if you need to switch quickly between those two AF options, as I do in the aforementioned scenario, you're out of luck. There's no direct-access control and you can't assign the selection to one of the three custom buttons; the closest you can get is to add it to My Menu, or waste an entire custom setting bank for that one feature. For me, since the 51-point without 3D is the more generally useful of the two modes, the 3D tracking will just be woefully underutilized, and might as well not be there at all. And frankly, I miss the AF-group visual feedback provided by the D200.

The same goes for the D300's Live View shooting. Like the 40D, it supports autofocus, but the D300 uses the typical too-many-mirror-flips implementation that makes it far less useful than it could be. There's actually a flow chart in the manual explaining the series of steps it takes to shoot in Live View--with a tripod it can use contrast AF, which doesn't require the constant mirror flippage. It is neither complicated, nor the shooting experience one should expect.

Like Canon, Nikon has a lot invested in lens-based optical-image stabilization technology, so the D300 lacks the in-body sensor-shift stabilization that Sony, Pentax, Olympus, and Panasonic offer. That's not a big deal if you already have an investment in Nikon's VR lenses or don't really use/care about stabilization. But if you do care about it and making your first dSLR purchase, or contemplating shifting from another brand, then don't discount its importance; the fact that the two kits require a choice between VR and non-VR lenses foreshadows future lens choices you'll have to make.

Other boosts over the D200 include an upgrade to a 3-inch LCD with a 170-degree viewing angle, a stop higher on the sensitivity scale to an effective ISO 100-6,400, the addition of a 14-bit raw mode, and an HDMI connector for optimal HDTV output. Before going into production, Nikon dropped the Virtual Horizon capability (which did make it into the D3). Nice features carried over from the D200 include built-in wireless flash control; selectable 6mm, 8mm, 10mm, or 13mm center-spot for center-weighted metering; and a shutter-speed range of 1/8,000 to 30 seconds. (For a complete list of the D300's features and capabilities, check out the PDF manual.)

There's nothing to complain about with the D300's shooting speed--though it delivers average performance for its class, the D300 does belong to a pretty zippy class of cameras, and it outpaces the D200 on a few tasks. CNET Labs' tests indicate that it wakes up and shoots near instantly, in about 0.1 second. Under good, high-contrast lighting, it focuses and shoots in just under half a second, rising to 0.9 second in dimmer conditions.

Typically, it captures consecutive frames in the same half second, edging up to 0.6 second with the built-in flash enabled. And it delivers a quick 5.8 frames per second for high-speed burst shooting. (We tested without the optional battery grip, which brings the speed closer to 7fps.) Nikon traditionally delivers excellent low-light focus performance in its dSLRs, and the D300 is no exception. Even shooting a black cat sitting in the shadows of a dimly lit apartment proved no problem.

As for photo quality, the D300 delivers great results, with a visibly superior noise profile to the D200 as well as to the Sony DSLR-A700 (which uses the same sensor). At their best, photos are sharp, with excellent exposures, accurate colors, and broad tonal ranges. Flash with the SB-800 Speedlight unit especially showed off how well the metering system works, with none of the harsh, overexposed look that I frequently get on the most difficult shots. (For more details on the photo quality, click through the slide show.)

Although the lack of in-body stabilization can be a big liability for certain users, and its interface not quite as streamlined as I'd like, these negatives are more than offset by the great performance and class-leading photo quality delivered by the Nikon D300--earning it an Editors' Choice.


Source from: edition.cnn.com

Iris scans to protect your photos

Iris scanner being trialled by the former UK Home Secretary Charles Clarke
Iris recognition relies on the fact that no two eyes are identical
The increasing problem of digital photograph theft is being tackled by one Japanese camera company using iris recognition - the same technology used at airports to combat terrorism.

A patent for technology which will digitally "watermark" the image with the details of the iris of the photographer has been filed by camera giant Canon.

The system works by scanning the iris as the eye is put to the viewfinder when the shot is composed.

"It's really a combination of two pre-existing technologies," John Daugman, the original inventor of Iris Recognition, told BBC World Service's Digital Planet programme.

"Often in invention, the innovation is a combination of two older arts. So from what I've seen of the Canon patent, it doesn't actually propose any new method of iris recognition - it just says, rather vaguely, that the iris information of the photographer is embedded, whether it's a raw image or an encoded image."

Practical issues

Digital photographers keen to show off their skills have flocked to photo-sharing websites such as Flickr and Photobucket in recent years.

Although the sites make provision for the owner to set the copyright status associated with their images, there have still been cases where photos have been stolen - in some cases allowing the thief to sell the images to sites which pay to be able to use them commercially.

There's advantage in encoding just the mathematical description of the iris - a very short iris code - rather than the iris itself

John Daugman said that the patent as filed does not specify whether the iris scan will be put into the photograph as a piece of code or as an image of the eye.

"There's a lot of practical issues there, because a raw image is several hundred thousand bytes normally - or even several million bytes - but the iris code itself is only 500 bytes," he said.

"So there's advantage in encoding just the mathematical description of the iris - a very short iris code - rather than the iris itself."

This is because they are intended to be unobtrusive and surreptitious.

Mr Daugman pointed out that using iris technology may not necessarily be "an unalloyed blessing," because cameras are not ususally built to capture infra-red images - which is how iris recognition works.

As a result, building it in would add significant cost.

"You've got to had another set of optics that's rather different to the set at the front of the camera, to acquire this image facing the other way, as it were," Mr Daugman said.

These problems were "not necessarily trivial," he said.

"But still, it's a promising idea," he added.Opposition joy Cold War to thaw? Blu-ray victory

Source from: news.bbc.co.uk

Q&A: Death of a format

It means victory for Sony's Blu-ray format but will leave questions for all those who bought into the failed format as well as raising issues about whether anyone can benefit from a format war.

Q: What is the HD DVD format war all about?

HD DVD and Blu-Ray have been battling to become the pre-eminent format for next-generation DVDs for the last couple of years. Toshiba had its HD DVD format approved by the DVD Forum back in 2004 and the first products hit the market in the US in April 2006.

The same year Sony pulled its Blu-ray format out of the bag.

Initially the two formats seemed to have an equal number of backers although there was general dismay in the industry that a new format war could slow down developments of a nascent market and be confusing for consumers.

Toshiba, for its part, said it never intended to enter a format war.

"Blu-ray wasn't submitted to the DVD Forum. We did it right and we didn't expect this battle," Olivier VanWynendaele, deputy general manager at Toshiba, told the BBC News website.

He added that the firm was "very sad" to see the end of the format it had such high hopes for.

Q: Why has Toshiba backed down?

The firm itself identifies the tipping point as Warner Bros' decision to back Blu-Ray, a decision it said it was very surprised at.

It also points to the loss of key retailers - in February Wal-Mart announced that it would phase out HD DVD products, UK retailer Woolworths said it would only promote Blu-Ray in store while US chain Best Buy also came down firmly in the Blu-Ray camp.

US online retailer Netflix said it would also focus on Blu-Ray as have several content owners, including Constantin Film in Germany and National Geographic.

"It became increasingly difficult for us to gain access to the market," said Mr VanWynendaele.

Others point to the power of Sony's PlayStation 3 which has an in-built Blu-Ray player. The figures speak for themselves - 10.5 million PS3's have been sold compared to one million HD-DVD players.

Analysts see Toshiba's swift admission of defeat as being a better long-term strategy for the firm than carrying on with a dying format.

The market seems to agree - Toshiba Corp shares rose 6% in response to the news.

Q: What does it mean for consumers?

Those who rushed out and bought a HD-DVD player when it went on the market in the UK paid a hefty 449 for it and they could be understandably angry about Toshiba's pull-out.

For its part Toshiba said it had "no plan to compensate consumers", and will continue to offer technical support for those owning HD DVD machines.

In fact, according to Toshiba, the players - now available for just 149 - are still a good value option for consumers, despite the diminishing amount of content available to play on them.

The machines can still be used to "upscale" standard definition movies for high definition screens.

For consumers who have bought a HD DVD add-on for Microsoft's Xbox 360 console, there was no word as to whether the software giant will phase out the add-on.

In a statement Microsoft said it was too early to say but added that games, rather than high definition movie playback, was the main reason why consumers bought consoles.

Q: What other format wars have there been?

For Sony, victory this time around is a case of third time lucky because it has lost two previous format wars.

The now-famous tussle between video formats - VHS and Betamax - interestingly saw Toshiba as a partner rather than a rival to Sony.

Although many felt Betamax was the superior format, most cite the longer recording length of VHS tapes - three hours versus one - and the cheaper manufacturing costs for VHS machines as the main factors why VHS eventually won out.

In the early nineties Sony was caught up in another format battle, this time about who would control what would become the DVD market.

At the time there were two high density optical storage formats were being developed. Sony and partner Phillips offered the MMCD (Multi-Media Compact Disc) format while the SD (Super Density) format was backed by Toshiba and Matsushita among others.

While the VHS/Betamax format war was a long and costly struggle, the battle to take charge of the DVD market was an altogether a quieter affair, ending with a compromise.

The super density format was used as the basis of DVD with a couple of tweaks form the Sony camp.Opposition joy Cold War to thaw? Battling on

Source from: news.bbc.co.uk

Why the future is in your hands

GPS=enabled handset- Lluis Gene (AFP/Getty)
GPS is starting to appear on more handsets

Sales of smartphones are expected to overtake those of laptops in the next 12 to 18 months as the mobile phone completes its transition from voice communications device to multimedia computer.

Convergence has been the Holy Grail for mobile phone makers, software and hardware partners, as well as consumers, for more than a decade.

And for the first time the rhetoric of companies like Nokia, Samsung and Motorola, who have boasted of putting a multimedia computer in your pocket, no longer seems far fetched.

"Converged devices are always with you and always connected," said Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo, Nokia chief executive at last week's Mobile World Congress in Barcelona.

Last year Nokia sold almost 200m camera phones and about 146m music phones, making it the world's biggest seller of digital cameras and MP3 players.

In the coming year the firm predicts it will sell 35 million GPS-enabled phones as personal navigation becomes the latest feature to be assimilated into the mobile phone. Form and function

Nigel Clifford, chief executive of Symbian, said: "All of those single use devices - MP3 players, digital camera, GPS - are collapsing onto the phone."

"We are going past the point where this was a phone with a few other things," he said.

Symbian's operating system shipped on 188 million phones last year and a third of those came with GPS.

"We see mobile phones evolving into multi-functional devices that now support consumer electronics, multimedia entertainment and mobile professional enterprise applications; all converging," said Luis Pineda, from mobile phone chip firm Qualcomm.

Man taking photo with phone, Roslan Rahman AFP/Getty
More and more people are snapping shots with a handset

The first phones powered by a chip running at 1Ghz will hit the market later this year, seven years after the first desktop chip broke the gigahertz barrier.

Qualcomm's 1Ghz Snapdragon chipset will debut inside a number of handsets, including some from Samsung and HTC

"It's a first in the industry for a wireless chipset," said Mr Pineda.

As well as raw horsepower Snapdragon also features a dedicated application processor, as well as the ability to handle 12 megapixel digital photos and up to 720p high definition video imaging.

Mr Clifford from Symbian said the mobile industry had to deliver multi-function devices which did not compromise.

He said: "When we look at what is collapsing on to these devices and people's expectations with their experiences on single-use specialized devices there is going to be rising expectations."

Chip shop

More than 90% of the world's mobile phones are powered by technology created by British firm Arm. It designs chip architectures that it licenses to semiconductors makers such as Qualcomm and Broadcom.

Ian Drew from Arm said future mobile phones demanded ever more processing power.

But building chips with greater processing was not a straightforward, he said.

The future of the internet and computing applications is not going to be in the home or at the office; it's going to be mobile

"It needs to get into your pocket. And there's no fan. It needs to work for days rather than hours."

He added: "When you start adding multi media experiences - such as 3D graphics, video, and games - there are two ways to do that: you can get bigger and bigger processors or you have multi core where you can switch off a processor when you don't need it."

Arm is demonstrating a chip architecture, called Coretex A9, that will offer four cores, or processors, on a single chip.

Symbian has been working with Arm on future uses for multi-core mobile phones.

"You can use massive amounts of processing if you need it. But if you don't you can power down the cores that aren't required," said Mr Clifford.

Symmetrical Multi Processing will drive the next generation of applications on a phone, he added.

"Silicon vendors are looking very seriously at how they integrate SMP."

Mr Clifford added: "The future of the internet and computing applications is not going to be in the home or at the office; it's going to be mobile."

Quake III screenshot, Activision
The gaming abilities of handsets are rapidly improving

"That is one of the next single usage devices that will start feeling the pressure from the mobile device," he said.

3D graphics acceleration is becoming standard on many of today's mobile phones and specialists like Nvidia have joined the market.

Mr Clifford said today's most powerful mobile phones, such as Nokia's N96 and NTTDoCoMo's 905 series have the same power as a laptop from 2000.

Nvidia's APX 2500 chip has enough 3D graphics acceleration to handle Quake 3, a PC game from 1999, on a mobile phone.

Handset owners were also beginning to expect the same online experience they have on their desktop PCs on their mobile phones.

"Web 2.0, social networking and video sharing; that's a real driver of horsepower," said Mr Drew from Arm.

He added: "But you need to be able to get data in. The next generation of mobile phones need high performance radios - they will have high data rates that will enable this content to be streamed to you."

Symbian is working on technology called Freeway to give phones the ability to move seamlessly between wireless networks, like wi-fi and cell networks like 3G and 4G.

"We don't want people to feel the mobile web is a second class experience."Opposition joy In pictures Battling on

Source from: news.bbc.co.uk

The high cost of a good reputation

Auction site eBay doesn't trust sellers to behave honestly. Bill Thompson isn't surprised.

At the moment I've got 100% positive feedback but the number of transactions is so small that it doesn't really signify.

However, heavy sellers and those who make a substantial proportion of their income from the site care deeply about the reports they get from other buyers and sellers.

Their concerns about negative feedback are well-grounded: In 2002 Paul Resnick and his colleagues did a proper randomised control experiment to assess the value of an eBay reputation, looking to see how much people would bid for articles from sellers with different scores.

They found that sellers with established reputations can expect about 8% more revenue than new sellers marketing the same goods.

The move is being seen by some as a clear indication that the brave new world of online communities is faltering

Cheerleaders for crowdsourcing, hive minds and the wisdom of the crowds like to point to eBay as an example of a working online community where little intervention is needed, a "self-governing nation-state" that essentially manages itself, according to Thomas Friedman in The World Is Flat.

Unfortunately, however, like many other communities that seem to be happy and relaxed but are in turmoil just beneath the surface, eBay is more like the fictional murder-prone village of Midsomer than the perfect market.

Buyers and sellers seem to be engaged in a war of attrition where negative feedback is one of the main weapons, and now eBay has announced that sellers will no longer be able to leave negative feedback on buyers, hoping that this will help to rebalance things.

Both sides in a transaction get to leave feedback on the site, but it seems that sellers are threatening to leave negative comments on buyers' profiles if they say anything at all critical, knowing that this will make it harder for them to trade in future.

When Bill Cobb, eBay's head of North American operations, announced the changes he admitted that "the biggest issue with the system is that buyers are more afraid than ever to leave honest, accurate feedback because of the threat of retaliation".

Honey bees on frame, SPL
The way eBay works has been likened to a colony of bees

But eBay probably reckons that it can weather the storm and that its users will adapt to the new dispensation since the costs of setting up on another auction site are so high.

The move is being seen by some as a clear indication that the brave new world of online communities is faltering.

In the Financial Times Patti Waldmeir was sad that "the company has basically admitted that the cybersouk model does not work: buyers did not tell the truth about sellers, and sellers did not tell the truth about buyers. And in a market where traders lie, the trust that is so central to online commerce cannot flourish".

This seems to be an excessive response to the change, which is more about rebalancing the system than ditching the very idea of customer feedback.

eBay already relies strongly on external legal systems to support its business.

The company's "level of integration with and dependence on law enforcement is remarkable", as Jack Goldsmith and Tim Wu point out in their excellent book Who Rules the Internet, so taking some of the feedback elements away from the customers is not itself a radical shift.

No sale sign, Eyewire
Research shows a bad reputation can dent sales

We could see the development of policing in the 18th century as a similar process, one that reinforces community bonds by taking certain sanctions away from individuals and vesting them in the group as a whole.

In this light eBay's move marks a growing maturity, not a failure of nerve.

After all, as Nick Carr point out, no system managed by humans can be perfect or last forever.

"Sometimes, we're inspired by fellow-feeling", he says. "Other times, we act selfishly or with prejudice or we try to game whatever system we're part of. And the more times we're confronted with other people acting selfishly, or fraudulently, the more we retreat into self-interest ourselves."

eBay's reputation system did well for many years, and even with the changes in place it is far from useless for sellers or buyers.

Perhaps we should applaud the senior team for following Clinton, Obama and McCain, the front-runners for the US presidency, in being bold and embracing change instead of lambasting them for leaving a broken system in place just because they are afraid of the reaction.


Source from: news.bbc.co.uk

Listening to internet chatter

What the internet sounds like Thousands of people chat online every day - but what does it actually sound like?

A new electronic art installation at the Science Museum in London endeavours to show just that.

Listening Post allows its audience to eavesdrop on the online world. Sampling text from thousands of chatrooms, message boards and forums, the artists have created a huge display that attempts to "hear the internet".

Artists Ben Rubin and Mark Hansen have forged a giant curved stand that is built out of 231 small electronic screens.

Those screens display text fragments, which are accompanied by the rhythm of computer-synthesized voices reading - or as some put it "singing" - the words that surge and flicker over the screens.

Those words are uncensored and unedited: they may be four letters but they are predominantly "clean ones", such as "skin" and "bone".

Then sound artist Ben Rubin has programmed a voice synthesizer to create tones and sound effects that respond to shifts in the data-streams, building up a musical score of online activity.

The artwork then plays out through a series of seven cycles, lasting 25 minutes in all.

The display has been funded by money from the Art Fund and the Science Museum.

Hannah Redler, head of arts at the Science Museum, said the artwork offered an insight into public chatter online.

"It is an awe-inspiring 'portrait of chat' that reveals people's most personal thoughts and most universal concerns."

And David Barrie, director of the Art Fund, said the installation saw art and technology meet.

"Its interest lies, not only in its almost mesmeric visual and auditory impact, but in the poetry it generates from the often banal traffic on the internet," he added.Opposition joy In pictures Battling on

Source from: news.bbc.co.uk

Game creators look to the future

Screenshot from Guitar Hero III, Red Octane
Games aimed at casual players have been big in 2007
The developers of some of the world's most popular video games are in San Francisco this week to discuss the future of the industry.

They will look back on one of their most successful years and discuss tackling the challenges ahead.

Jamil Moledina, director of the Game Developers' Conference said: "We had an incredible banner year in 2007 with games like Bioshock, Halo 3 and Uncharted.

In the US the industry's revenues grew 43%, with software sales up a third on the previous year.

Speaking to BBC News, Mr Moledina said: "It's often dangerous to make predictions about the future but the industry has taken on a sense of casualisation."

In this sense casual games are those that people can play and complete in minutes rather than hours and are aimed at children, women and older people. Many of the titles prepared for Nintendo's Wii are casual games.

He added: "There's definitely an increasing interest in approaching that larger audience of media consumers."

New markets

Traditionally the games industry has concentrated on its core audience. Titles like Halo 3, which pulled in the biggest ever earnings for an entertainment release in a single day, showed that the hard core gamer remained a potent market.

How on earth will the games industry surpass last year's commercial and critical high?

For instance, he said, Guitar Hero games made more than $820m at retail, a record for any single franchise in any one year.

Mr Moledina added: "The Wii has re-proven the point that five to 95 year olds like playing games."

Veteran game designer Sid Meier will speak at the conference to shed light on "the key things you need to capture the interest of the public at large".

"We have Facebook here talking about how they have managed to get so many eyeballs playing games in such a short space of time," he said.

Developers and publishers were looking at this area very closely, he added.

But, he said, these new developments would not change everything. "Not all games are going to be casual. There's still going to be a huge market for the core base which drives everything."

One of the games aimed squarely at the core audience in 2008 is Star Wars: The Force Unleashed, which will be demoed at the week-long conference.

Gaining control

The event will also feature talk about the future of the human computer interface.

"Game worlds are a fairly complex universe, however the controllers we have are often a bit intimidating," said Mr Moledina.

Emotiv systems will be showing off its latest headset that uses sensors to detect brain waves to allow gamers to control characters and objects in a game world.

Nokia N81, Nokia
Mobile gaming is starting to be taken seriously

Gamers can swing an imaginary golf club or interact with a 3D world just by using their hands and arms and without the need for a controller.

"A lot of people experiment with different ways to get into the game; to convert a fairly complex way that humans think and behave and have that map in a natural way to a complex game world," explained Mr Moledina.

The conference also features a strong mobile gaming element.

"We are seeing more and more big game companies take the space seriously. The sea change is that traditional game developers are less snarky about mobile and casual than they were because of the power of phones today."

Microsoft's head of Live services, John Schappert, will give one of the conference's keynotes, where he is expected to unveil new features for the Xbox Live service.

"Microsoft hasn't delivered a keynote for two years so it will be interesting to see what they have for us," said Mr Moledina.Opposition joy In pictures Battling on

Source from: news.bbc.co.uk

Whistle-blower site taken offline

Interlaken in Switzerland, with the Eiger in the background
The case was brought by lawyers working for a Swiss bank
A controversial website that allows whistle-blowers to anonymously post government and corporate documents has been taken offline in the US. Web names

Wikileaks logo
The site was founded in 2006
Information bank

Opposition joy In pictures Battling on

Source from: news.bbc.co.uk

Net news 'threatens court cases'

Lord Falconer
Lord Falconer believes the actions would only need to be temporary
Articles relating to high-profile court cases should be removed from online news archives, the former Lord Chancellor has told the BBC.

Lord Falconer believes the action is necessary to avoid news stories written before a case influencing its outcome.

Action would be necessary for around 20 cases a year, he said, in trials which attract a lot of pre-trial coverage.

The Attorney-General would have to be responsible for identifying cases that could be affected, he said.

"I think the state needs to be better at identifying those cases in which they think there's a contempt risk," he told BBC Radio 4's Law in Action programme.

The rules would only apply to cases, such as the Soham murders, which generate intense media interest.

News organisations would have to remove stories from their archives that were written before an arrest was made and a case became active.

If they refused to comply "it would be very strong evidence they'd committed contempt", he said.

History search

Under the Contempt of Court Act 1981, reporters must be careful not to publish or broadcast anything which poses a "substantial risk of serious prejudice" to a fair trial, such as a defendant's previous convictions unless they are mentioned in open court.

The restrictions apply when a case becomes "active", that is when a warrant is issued for a suspect, an arrest is made or charges are brought.

If one hoster is ordered to remove information because it is in contempt, it is very easy for that information to pop up on another website.

But a journalist may have legitimately reported this information before the individual was arrested and faced trial, and that article could lie in vast online archives that are easy to access.

Charles Collier-Wright, group legal manager at Trinity Mirror, said taking down story archives would present news organisations with serious practical difficulties:

"I think it would be absurd if anyone seriously argued that newspaper archives should be removed just for fear that somebody might go and do a bit of research on them in relation to a case that might be coming up," he said.

"Newspaper information has always been accessible to anyone who really wanted to do it - you can go to libraries and find it out."

Lord Falconer says articles should only be removed for a temporary period, in the run-up to and during a court case, and that search engines should also be asked to ensure prejudicial material doesn't come up at the top of search results lists.

He also denies that the scheme could be seen as changing history.

'Conviction quashed'

Lord Falconer's intervention comes as concern increases about the role of the internet for the criminal justice system.

"By the click of the button you can go on to the internet and get access to the press coverage there may have been at the time the person on trial was arrested," Donald Findlay QC, one of Scotland's leading barristers, told the BBC.

The internet presented a potentially big problem for the criminal justice system across Britain, he said.

"That might disclose all sorts of speculation about the circumstances of the crime, all sorts of information you are not supposed to have if you're serving on a jury."

Prejudicial material can be easy to come by, appearing all over the web - on blogs and discussion boards, for example.

As a result, Catrin Turner, a partner and online law specialist at solicitors Pinsent Masons, said removing a web page wouldn't necessarily remove the problem.

"Websites are hosted on servers all over the world," she explained.

"If one hoster is ordered to remove information because it is in contempt, it is very easy for that information to pop up on another website.

"There is also something called caches: invisible copies of content are stored in separate places on the internet, so even if content is taken down from a website, there may still be these caches or stores of information which can be accessed."

Judges do warn juries against doing their own research on the internet, but media barrister Rupert Elliott said there was concrete evidence that the temptation is difficult to resist:

"In a 2005 rape case, at the end of the trial some downloaded material from the internet was found in the jury room, which essentially encouraged uncritical acceptance of evidence from a rape victim.

"In that case, the Court of Appeal was so concerned about its content that they quashed the conviction," he said.


Source from: news.bbc.co.uk

Meeting the man behind Moore's Law

Sunday, February 17, 2008

Gordon Moore
Dr Moore has now helped found several companies
In April 1965 a 36-year old electronics buff jotted down his thoughts on the future of the juvenile silicon chip industry.

Writing in a "throw-away" journal, Gordon Moore accurately imagined a future filled with mobile phones, home computers, and even intelligent cars.

But it was a much more prosaic prediction that has come to dominate his life and the industry that he helped found.

"I could see a change coming that the electronics were going to get significantly cheaper," says the co-founder of Intel, the largest maker of computer chips.

In the article in Electronics Magazine, he predicted that the number of transistors on a silicon chip would double every year for ten years.

He later revised the forecast to doubling every two years or so, as the initial breakneck speed of development and shrinkage waned. It was a prediction that became known as Moore's Law and it has helped drive the computer revolution over the last four decades.

Modest growth

At first glance it is not the kind of observation that would catapult a person to fame.

But the day I meet him, a now silver haired Dr Moore has just given a talk to a packed auditorium of people and he is surrounded by crowds of autograph hunters who were not even born when he made his off the cuff observations.

Moore's Law has become shorthand for the pace of technological change. It set a standard for the chip industry's phenomenal growth and has in turn underpinned the world's digital awakening.

"It was an exciting technology in the beginning. It had so much potential, we just had no idea how much potential," he says.

"When Intel was formed [in 1968] the total semiconductor industry was only a couple of billion dollars worldwide - today it is 300 billion."

And as the industry has delivered each successive generation of faster, smaller, cheaper chips, it has opened up rafts of new possibilities for silicon that have ultimately delivered the technologies he predicted more than 40 years ago.

Reflecting on his prophesies today, a retired and quietly-spoken Dr Moore is characteristically modest.

"When I went back and read that I was amazed that I predicted all of those things," he says.

But, as a young engineer, he was at least uniquely placed to make his key observation, having co-founded Fairchild Semiconductors, maker of the first commercial integrated circuit, or chip.

"I was directing a lab where we were trying to advance the technology and from my perspective I could see some of these things coming that weren't generally visible to the rest of the population," he says.

Force for change

At the time, computers were mainly used by the military and PCs were unheard of, he says.

"Computers were in glass rooms tended to by a core of monks that knew how to do the proper incantations."

Moore's Law graph

But as the silicon chip industry took hold and computer makers learnt how to exploit the technology everything changed.

"Shortly after that the commercial market just completely dwarfed anything in the military," he says.

And what had originally been just a prediction by Dr Moore became a self-fulfilling prophesy.

"It has become a driving force for the industry," he says. "Competitors have realised that if they don't move at least that rate they are going to fall behind."

So far silicon producers have managed to keep on or ahead of the curve for more than four decades by continually shrinking the technology and packing more and more components inside a chip.

"It's a peculiar feature of this technology that by making things smaller everything gets better," says Dr Moore. "The transistors get faster, you can put more of a system on a chip."

But more importantly, and perhaps more curiously, the chips also become cheaper.

And this is the key point of his 1965 paper, he says. Moore's Law is an economic law and would probably have driven the industry regardless of whether or not he had made his prediction.

"I am not sure that having Moore's Law held up there as a yardstick increases the pressure [on chip manufacturers] because the need to remain competitive is so strong."

Chip future

As a result, the industry has grown "far beyond" what he could have imagined in 1965, he says.

Moore interview

"It is surprising that any of the things we predicted are still valid."

He is most impressed with the industry's inventiveness, he says, allowing it to overcome a series of seemingly insurmountable technical hurdles as it grew.

"The industry has succeeded in getting around all of the ones that have been thrown in front of it," he says. "It has been much more successful than I probably would have predicted."

But, Dr Moore says, the industry can only go on shrinking transistors for so long.

Eventually, the features will become so small that the atomic structure of the materials will be a limitation, possibly spelling the end of Moore's Law

So what does he think will happen in the next 40 years?

"I'm through with making predictions," he chuckles. "Get it right once and quit."

In pictures Balance of forces In pictures
Source from: news.bbc.co.uk

Getting more from Moore's Law

For more than 40 years the silicon industry has delivered ever faster, cheaper chips.

The advances have underpinned everything from the rise of mobile phones to digital photography and portable music players.

Chip-makers have been able to deliver many of these advances by shrinking the components on a chip.

By making these building blocks, such as transistors, smaller they have become faster and firms have been able to pack more of them into the same area.

But according to many industry insiders this miniaturisation cannot continue forever.

"The consensus in the industry is that we can do that shrink for about another ten years and then after that we have to figure out new ways to bring higher capability to our chips," said Professor Stanley Williams of Hewlett Packard.

Even Gordon Moore, the founder of Intel and the man that gave his name to the law that dictates the industry's progression, admits that it can only go on for a few more years.

"Moore's Law should continue for at least another decade," he recently told the BBC News website. "That's about as far as I can see."

Tiny tubes

As a result, researchers around the world are engaged in efforts to allow the industry to continue delivering the advances that computer users have come to expect.

Key areas include advanced fabrication techniques, building new components and finding new materials to augment silicon.

Already new materials are creeping into modern chips.

To overcome this, companies have replaced the gate dielectrics, previously made from silicon dioxide, with an oxide based on the metal hafnium.

The material's development and integration into working components has been described by Dr Moore as "the biggest change in transistor technology" since the late 1960s.

But IBM researchers are working on materials that they believe offer even bigger advances.

"Carbon nanotubes are a step beyond [hafnium]," explained Dr Phaedon Avouris of the company.

'Superior' design

"They are a more drastic change but still preserve the basic architecture of field effect transistors."

Dr Avouris believes they can be used to replace a critical element of the chip, known as the channel.

Today this is commonly made of silicon and is the area of the transistor through which electrons flow.

Chip makers are constantly battling to make the channel length in transistors smaller and smaller, to increase the performance of the devices.

Carbon nanotube's small size and "superior" electrical properties should be able to deliver this, said Dr Avouris.

Crucially, he also believes the molecules can be integrated with traditional silicon manufacturing processes, meaning the technology would more likely be accepted by an industry that has spent billions perfecting manufacturing techniques.

The team have already shown off working transistors and are currently working on optimising their production and integration into working devices.

Tiny improvement

Professor Williams, at Hewlett Packard is also working on technology that could be incorporated into the future generations of chips.

Nano chip developer Multi-core chips Multi-core 'myth'

"Now we have this type of device we have a broader palette with which to paint our circuits," said Professor Williams.

Professor Williams and his team have shown that by putting two of these devices together - a configuration called a crossbar latch - it could do the job of a transistor.

"A cross bar latch has the type of functionality you want from a transistor but it's working with very different physics," he explained.

Crucially, these devices can also be made much smaller than a transistor.

"And as they get smaller they get better," he said.

Professor Williams and his team are currently making prototype hybrid circuits - built of memristors and transistors - in a fabrication plant in North America.

"We want to keep the functional equivalent of Moore's Law going for many decades into the future," said Professor Williams.In pictures Balance of forces In pictures

Source from: news.bbc.co.uk

Cleaning up in 'fab world'

Each manufacturing plant, or "fab", may cost billions of dollars and is a triumph of engineering.

But working inside these hi-tech plants can be a surreal experience, says Dr Peter Wilson of the University of Southampton.

Its pristine white walls, secure air locks, sterile air and ethereal yellow lighting makes it seem like you have arrived in the belly of an orbiting space station.

I can still remember the first time I went there.

It was set in classic "tumbleweed" territory - a small town in Arizona with just one road and the factory.

The temperature was over 100 degrees outside, with dust everywhere, but when you crossed the threshold into the plant, the air-conditioning kicked in and you felt like you were in a different world.

This is a common experience to anyone who works in the silicon manufacturing sector. The world outside and the fab world inside are on two different planes.

The boundary can transcend geographic and political boundaries - it can become impossible to tell which country you are in, when everyone is wearing a mask, and is dressed head to foot in shapeless, white hooded-suits.

'Bunny men'

Outside, we worry about dirt on our shoes and wipe our feet, or perhaps wipe some dust off our laptop screen. In fab world, we worry about a few atoms contaminating the environment.

If dust falls on the delicate silicon wafers on which chips are printed it can render them useless.

Modern transistors - the tiny switches at the heart of these devices - are described in terms of the smallest feature sizes that can be made, such as a 45 nanometres, or 45 billionths of a meter.

To put this in perspective, the average human hair will be between 20 and 100 micrometers across - over a thousand times larger - and a typical dust particle will be anything from 1 to 100 micrometres.

Dust and contaminants must be kept out.

The fab is a place for chips, not for people. As a result, only the pure and the clean are given permission to penetrate its' inner chambers.

Anyone that enters must go through a strict set of procedures.

All of the trappings of the outside world must be left behind, whether clothes, jewellery or even make-up.

A series of ante-chambers serve as prep rooms where workers change into a series of gowns and gloves, collectively known as a "bunny suit".

Sticky floors make sure that no one treads in any contaminants and an air shower before entry makes certain that any loose particles are stripped away.

Skin flakes, lint, hair and anything else gets sucked into the grate in the floor.

Pure products

And then it's onwards into the hum of the clean rooms. Stark white walls reflect the yellow sodium lights from above and a constant breeze blows down from the ceiling taking any particles through the gridded floor.

Fab world is an expensive place and, hence, it never stops Sand to silicon chip

Everything taken in either needs to be cleaned with alcohol or specially designed. Even the paper we use to take notes is designed from a special lint-free material.

Inside, humans very rarely come into contact with the rainbow-streaked discs of reflective silicon on which the chips are cut.

Instead, they are there to trouble shoot and monitor that everything goes correctly.

The silicon wafers are handled on monorails that move above the fab floor and the processing is done by complex vacuum sealed robots.

The wafers enter one end of the line costing a couple of hundred dollars and appear at the other - weeks later - patterned with billions of transistors and worth tens of thousands of pounds.

The silicon itself is not made at the fab - the ultra pure ingots (up to 99.99999999% pure) are produced and cut by specialist companies and sold to the chip makers.

The fab world's magic is creating the incredibly complex patterns of wires and circuitry on chips the size of a postage stamp time and time again

That alchemy can cost billions of dollars.

Non-Stop

Each layer of a processor is constructed using a mask which is like a stencil, to highlight the areas to be deposited, etched or doped.

Nano chip designer

Doping involves adding impurities to the silicon to change its electrical characteristics - something which has to be done with astonishing precision.

Each mask used to cost several thousand pounds but as the complexity of chips has increased, and the smallest possible feature size has reduced, the number and intricacy of these masks has increased.

In addition, the size of individual features is now smaller than the wavelength of light that used to be used to pattern them, which means the use of some clever optics is required.

The yellowish lights used inside the fab are to make sure that they do not interfere with this process.

The result of all of this is that an individual silicon integrated circuit may require masks that cost hundreds of thousands of pounds, or perhaps even millions of pounds, to produce and machines that cost a similar amount.

Fab world is an expensive place and, hence, it never stops.

The plants churn out chips every single day of every year. So called giga-fabs may process more than 100,000 wafers every month, each containing hundreds of chips.

Each one of the 10mm by 10mm silicon squares is a triumph of design.

As a chip designer, the impact of the incredible complexity of fab world has led to an amazing transformation in what we can do on a single chip.

The products of this strange and surreal place have burst out of its confines and have pervaded every facet of the outside world from computers and mobile phones to aircraft and microwave ovens.

Yet, incredible as it is to visit, fab world is also a place that is blissful to leave.

At the end of the day there's no better feeling than being able to rip off the itchy bunny suit, step outside into the searing heat and once again get dirty.


Source from: news.bbc.co.uk

Politics 'stifling $100 laptop'

XO Laptop in Nigeria A lack of "big thinking" by politicians has stifled a scheme to distribute laptops to children in the developing world, a spokesman has said.

Walter Bender of One Laptop per Child (OLPC) said politicians were unwilling to commit because "change equals risk".

But, he said, there needed to be a "dramatic change" because education in many countries was "failing" children.

In an interview with the BBC, Nigeria's education minister questioned the need for laptops in poorly equipped schools.

Dr Igwe Aja-Nwachuku said: "What is the sense of introducing One Laptop per Child when they don't have seats to sit down and learn; when they don't have uniforms to go to school in, where they don't have facilities?"

"We are more interested in laying a very solid foundation for quality education which will be efficient, effective, accessible and affordable."

The previous government of Nigeria had committed to buying one million laptops.

Dr Aja-Nwachuku said he was now assessing OLPC alongside other schemes from Microsoft and Intel.

"We are asking whether this is the most critical thing to drive education."

But speaking separately to BBC News, Professor Bender said: "We think that change has to be dramatic."

"You've got to be big, you've got to be bold. And what has happened is that there has been an effort to say 'don't take any risks - just do something small, something incremental'."

"It feels safe but by definition what you are ensuring is that nothing happens."

Winds of change

OLPC was started in 2002 by Nicholas Negroponte, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

It aims to put thousands of low-cost laptops, known as the XO, in the hands of children around the world.

The machines are planned to cost $100 and have been especially designed for use in remote and harsh environments where there is little access to electricity or the internet.

But getting the project off the ground has proved difficult.

Professor Negroponte has had high profile run-ins with major technology firms.

He told an audience at a Linux event: "if I am annoying Microsoft and Intel then I figure I am doing something right."

Microsoft head Bill Gates had questioned the XOs design, particularly the lack of hard drive and its "tiny screen".

But recently, the firm announced that it was working on a version of Windows XP that would run on the pared down machines.

The price will come down as the numbers go up. It will take time but it will happen

"We are spending a non-trivial amount of money," Microsoft's Will Poole told Reuters.

Earlier this year, Professor Negroponte also accused Intel of selling its own cut-price laptop - the Classmate - below cost price to drive him out of markets. He said that Intel "should be ashamed of itself" and said its tactics had hurt his mission "enormously".

Within weeks it was announced that Intel had joined the board of OLPC amid speculation that the firm was unhappy about the XO using a processor from its main rival AMD.

'Small thinking'

Although these episodes now appear to be behind OLPC, Professor Bender said there was still an "aggressive" effort to undermine the charity.

cost breakdown

"There is still a concerted misinformation campaign out there," he said.

Mr Bender said he would not speculate on who was behind the alleged campaign.

"Wherever it is coming from, it exists," he told BBC News.

But he said the main problem for OLPC was dealing with conservative politicians.

"Change equals risk especially for politicians. And we are certainly advocating change because the [education] system is failing these children," he said.

"It has not been that processor versus that processor or that operating system versus that operating system - it's been small thinking versus big thinking. That's really the issue," he said.

Sales target

Originally, the laptops were to be sold to governments in lots of one million for $100 apiece.

Over time, however, the project has dropped the minimum number of machines that can be ordered, leading some to speculate that governments were not buying into the scheme.

The project also recently launched an initiative to allow citizens of North America to buy two machines at a time; one for themselves and one for a child in a developing country.

But Mr Bender said the shift was because of a better understanding of how to distribute smaller numbers cheaply and effectively, rather than a lack of orders.

"Part of it was our understanding of how the supply chain was going to work and having enough flexibility in the supply chain to make it work with a small number," he said.

"The big numbers were really about how you get this thing started not how you make it work in the long term.

"That was always going to be about supporting any good idea that comes along. And we've been able to get it started without the big top down numbers so we are off and running."

Developing tool

Since the scheme was first announced in 2002 there have been reports of several countries signing up to it.

Both Nigeria and Libya were reported to have ordered more than one million laptops.

Boy with XO laptop
Tests of the XO are going on around the world

Other countries including Thailand and Pakistan had also placed orders, according to reports.

But recently, OLPC revealed it had just taken its first order for 100,000 of the machines, placed by the government of Uruguay.

"Uruguay is first then it will be Peru, Mexico, Ethiopia then we are going to be doing stuff in Haiti, Rwanda and Mongolia," said Mr Bender.

In addition, he said, OLPC had done a deal with Birmingham, Alabama, in the US, to provide the laptop for schools in the city.

"The numbers of countries where we have trials set up is also increasing," he said.

Tests were also going on in the Solomon Islands, Nepal and India, a country that had previously shunned the scheme.

The Indian Ministry of Education had previously dismissed the laptop as "pedagogically suspect", whilst the Education Secretary Sudeep Banerjee said the country needed "classrooms and teachers more urgently than fancy tools".

Tipping point

The first machines will cost almost double the $100 originally planned.

The high price has been blamed on the increasing cost of the raw materials for the components inside the XO. Each machine currently costs $188.

Girl with XO laptop
The laptops have been designed to cope with harsh conditions

The manufacturer of the laptop - Quanta - recently revealed it had started mass production of the machines, after a number of delays.

Previously, OLPC had said it needed three million orders to make production feasible.

Professor Negroponte said it was an important milestone that had been reached despite "all the naysayers".

"We're not turning back - we have passed the point of no return," said Mr Bender. "It is happening."In pictures Balance of forces In pictures

Source from: news.bbc.co.uk

Cloudy visions of the future

Man gazing into crystal ball
Predicting the future can be difficult
Regular commentator Bill Thompson looks forward to cheap net access and cloud computing.

It's a good, safe time frame because if you're right then people may just remember your prediction when you remind them how clever you are, and if you're wrong it's very unlikely anyone will think to point it out.

Trying to anticipate significant developments for the coming year is a lot harder, perhaps because the tendency is to overestimate the impact of the few obvious trends and miss the slow-burn developments that are on the verge of going mainstream and changing the way we see the world.

For example, last year I wrote "we are building our lives around the network and the things it makes possible, and 2006 marks the year in which this became a sensible and indeed rather normal thing to do rather than something that marked you out as a geek".

While it's true that Facebook and other social network sites went mainstream, they are still not as widespread as the sometimes breathless coverage would make you think.

Wireless world

It's the same with my prediction about phones, when I argued that "we're going to see smartphones and mobile access finally come into their own, as the devices live up to the earlier promise and the networks finally realise that treating handsets as network nodes makes a lot more sense than acting like they are mobile phones with added data services".

This has started to happen, but it's going to take a long time before we're all surfing the wireless web from smart mobiles.

The iPhone has accelerated the process begun by Symbian, and the rollout of Google's Android and open source phones like OpenMoko may help, but it will be a few years before the devices are completely freed from reliance on the network.

Computing is not a simple service like electricity, and it's not clear that we can solve the administrative problems needed to have business-critical services hosted remotely.

One facet of mobile internet access may change quite fast, however.

Buying wifi by the hour in cafes or on trains is expensive and tedious, and the widespread availability of 3G data cards for laptops on fixed monthly rates could hasten the demise of the pay-per-use services.

It may force the operators to do more deals to offer free access like the one between The Cloud and McDonalds, and I wouldn't be surprised to see free wireless in Starbucks by the middle of the year.

At home we'll see faster broadband services being delivered over cable, and ADSL providers will try to keep up.

BT and the other telcos will complain loudly about not being able to afford the investment needed to upgrade the local loop between exchanges and homes, but if the government keeps its nerve and refuses them tax breaks I think we'll find that the money is there after all.

The potential revenue from fast broadband networks are just too great to pass on.

Network power

We'll also see better screens.

The multi-touch interface that Apple has built into the iPhone and the iPod Touch will be used on bigger devices, perhaps giving the tablet PC a new lease of life after years in which it has struggled to escape the taint of Microsoft's over-enthusiastic marketing.

And there will be more and better location-based services. The newest version of Google Maps for mobile does a pretty good job of figuring out where you are without GPS by using the cell network, and we may see this information used to tag photos and blog posts.

No doubt Facebook will seize the opportunity to offer an "I'm here" map-based addition to your profile, whether you want it or not.

Together these changes amount to more of the same, offering us easier, simpler, cheaper and faster access to the network.

But next year's real shift will be more subtle and have much greater long term impact.

At the moment most of the computing we do is local, and programs run on our laptops or desktops.

This is starting to change, and in 2008 we will see more and more processing moving away from the user and into large data centres which serve many different organisations.

Gradual shift

The change is described in Nick Carr's new book The Big Switch, where he argues that computing power is becoming a utility.

He believes that instead of owning our own processors we will soon be renting time on large systems run by the likes of Google and Amazon, not just for storing data but also for running code.

Electricty pylons
Computing could begin to be distributed like electricity

Carr sees strong parallels between the way electricity generation shifted from local generators in factories to a national grid providing voltage differences where they are needed and the move from local to central processing.

In the world Carr describes most processing takes place in "the cloud", and the computers we actually use will manage the interface and the communications, but do little of the real work.

It is a compelling vision, though not without its problems.

Computing is not a simple service like electricity, and it's not clear that we can solve the administrative problems needed to have business-critical services hosted remotely.

Moving everything onto the network may appeal in the rich countries of the industrialised world but offers little to rural India or sub-Saharan African countries.

And there are massive security and data management issues to be solved.

Even so, the potential benefits are too great to be ignored, and we're likely to see a range of services go live next year that will, if successful, take us closer to the cloud computing model.

It will not be an overnight shift, but when we look back in a decade or so I think we'll see 2008 as the year things started to change.


Source from: news.bbc.co.uk